Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Monmouth ME
Weather data for Monmouth ME.  Forecast values begin September 20, 2011
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Thursday, June 30
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Friday, July 8
 If blossom infection occurred May 30, then blossom blight would be noticeable by June 16, and shoot blight by June 30.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray box indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours, &
Avg. Temperature
     EIP = Epiphytic inocolum potential threshold.
     In absence of rain, 2 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+
Any rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
Mac King Bloom
 Sat, May 21 
  0%,  0.77'',  24 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Sun, May 22    0%,  0.08'',  13 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Mon, May 23    0%,  0.30'',  22 hrs.,  48F No FB infection
Tue, May 24    17%,  0.0'',  16 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Wed, May 25    35%,  0.0'',  7 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Thu, May 26    42%,  0.18'',  11 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Fri, May 27    82%,  0.0'',  14 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Sat, May 28    44%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sun, May 29    82%,  0.32'',  14 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Mon, May 30    159%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK
Tue, May 31    153%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Wed, June 1    149%,  0.44'',  15 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 2    150%,  0.0'',  5 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Fri, June 3    47%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Sat, June 4    32%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Sun, June 5    33%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Mon, June 6    35%,  0.0'',  4 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Tue, June 7    62%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Wed, June 8    121%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Thu, June 9    193%,  1.23'',  8 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 10    158%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 11    106%,  0.38'',  10 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Sun, June 12    67%,  0.35'',  24 hrs.,  51F No FB infection
Mon, June 13    45%,  0.02'',  18 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Tue, June 14    17%,  0.15'',  20 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Wed, June 15    42%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Thu, June 16    80%,  0.0'',  4 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Fri, June 17    113%,  0.12'',  16 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 18    133%,  0.42'',  21 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Sun, June 19    127%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  61F INFECTION RISK
Mon, June 20    110%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Tue, June 21    132%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Wed, June 22    139%,  0.29'',  4 hrs.,  63F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 23    81%,  0.46'',  24 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Fri, June 24    54%,  0.95'',  24 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Sat, June 25    36%,  0.33'',  24 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sun, June 26    33%,  0.09'',  22 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Mon, June 27    71%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Tue, June 28    115%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 29    133%,  0.04'',  19 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 30    143%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Fri, July 1    109%,  0.13'',  16 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 2    111%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Sun, July 3    105%,  0.60'',  23 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 4    145%,  0.01'',  15 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK
Tue, July 5    165%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, July 6    234%,  0.55'',  13 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, July 7    238%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  69F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 8    168%,  0.25'',  2 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 9    136%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  68F INFECTION RISK
Sun, July 10    147%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 11    237%,  0.53'',  0 hrs.,  74F No FB infection
Tue, July 12    323%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  76F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Wed, July 13    319%,  0.33'',  10 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, July 14    232%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  65F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 15    156%,  0.0'',  7 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sat, July 16    185%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  71F No FB infection
Sun, July 17    287%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  75F No FB infection
Mon, July 18    339%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  74F No FB infection
Tue, July 19    339%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  73F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, July 20    304%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  71F No FB infection
Thu, July 21    373%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  80F No FB infection
Fri, July 22    403%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  84F No FB infection