Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Middletown RI
Weather data for Middletown RI.  Forecast values begin September 20, 2011
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Saturday, June 18
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Monday, June 27
 If blossom infection occurred May 30, then blossom blight would be noticeable by June 9, and shoot blight by June 21.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray box indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours, &
Avg. Temperature
     EIP = Epiphytic inocolum potential threshold.
     In absence of rain, 2 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+
Any rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
Mac King Bloom
 Tue, May 10 
  0%,  0.03'',  7 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Wed, May 11    0%,  0.01'',  15 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Thu, May 12    0%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Fri, May 13    0%,  0.0'',  1 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Sat, May 14    0%,  0.14'',  24 hrs.,  50F No FB infection
Sun, May 15    0%,  0.52'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Mon, May 16    0%,  0.33'',  24 hrs.,  51F No FB infection
Tue, May 17    0%,  1.40'',  24 hrs.,  51F No FB infection
Wed, May 18    0%,  0.29'',  24 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Thu, May 19    5%,  1.04'',  24 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Fri, May 20    5%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sat, May 21    6%,  0.0'',  20 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sun, May 22    4%,  0.0'',  16 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Mon, May 23    3%,  0.40'',  24 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Tue, May 24    4%,  0.01'',  24 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Wed, May 25    36%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Thu, May 26    38%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Fri, May 27    59%,  0.0'',  19 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Sat, May 28    78%,  0.0'',  19 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Sun, May 29    61%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Mon, May 30    108%,  0.0'',  15 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, May 31    152%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 1    151%,  0.18'',  24 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 2    115%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 3    122%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sat, June 4    67%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sun, June 5    67%,  0.02'',  10 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Mon, June 6    82%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Tue, June 7    109%,  0.0'',  5 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 8    232%,  0.15'',  1 hrs.,  76F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 9    291%,  0.42'',  16 hrs.,  72F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 10    280%,  0.04'',  13 hrs.,  69F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 11    97%,  1.60'',  24 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sun, June 12    65%,  0.29'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Mon, June 13    59%,  0.01'',  19 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Tue, June 14    39%,  0.06'',  15 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Wed, June 15    25%,  0.0'',  1 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Thu, June 16    80%,  0.0'',  5 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Fri, June 17    84%,  0.96'',  16 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Sat, June 18    108%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  68F INFECTION RISK
Sun, June 19    104%,  0.0'',  3 hrs.,  68F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Mon, June 20    139%,  0.0'',  7 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, June 21    148%,  0.0'',  4 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 22    127%,  1.0'',  24 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 23    97%,  1.0'',  24 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Fri, June 24    103%,  0.02'',  24 hrs.,  63F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 25    64%,  0.02'',  19 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Sun, June 26    60%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Mon, June 27    122%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, June 28    167%,  0.15'',  15 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 29    241%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  73F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 30    232%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 1    227%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F No FB infection
Sat, July 2    183%,  0.0'',  15 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, July 3    178%,  0.03'',  24 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 4    222%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  73F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, July 5    291%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  75F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, July 6    319%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  73F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Thu, July 7    344%,  0.10'',  12 hrs.,  75F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Fri, July 8    295%,  1.96'',  24 hrs.,  71F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 9    321%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  75F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sun, July 10    272%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 11    303%,  0.14'',  14 hrs.,  74F INFECTION RISK (if dew)