Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Greenville RI
Weather data for Greenville RI.  Forecast values begin September 20, 2011
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Thursday, June 09
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Monday, June 20
 If blossom infection occurred May 26, then blossom blight would be noticeable by June 2, and shoot blight by June 12.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray box indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours, &
Avg. Temperature
     EIP = Epiphytic inocolum potential threshold.
     In absence of rain, 2 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+
Any rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
Mac King Bloom
 Mon, May 2 
  0%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Tue, May 3    2%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Wed, May 4    1%,  0.36'',  20 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Thu, May 5    1%,  0.02'',  9 hrs.,  50F No FB infection
Fri, May 6    3%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sat, May 7    3%,  0.27'',  10 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Sun, May 8    2%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Mon, May 9    2%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Tue, May 10    1%,  0.08'',  5 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Wed, May 11    1%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Thu, May 12    0%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Fri, May 13    0%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sat, May 14    0%,  0.32'',  9 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Sun, May 15    0%,  0.62'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Mon, May 16    0%,  0.49'',  24 hrs.,  50F No FB infection
Tue, May 17    0%,  0.97'',  24 hrs.,  50F No FB infection
Wed, May 18    0%,  0.44'',  24 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Thu, May 19    0%,  0.81'',  24 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Fri, May 20    2%,  0.06'',  22 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sat, May 21    10%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Sun, May 22    6%,  0.10'',  14 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Mon, May 23    4%,  0.54'',  22 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Tue, May 24    38%,  0.01'',  15 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Wed, May 25    79%,  0.0'',  4 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Thu, May 26    112%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Fri, May 27    155%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sat, May 28    166%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, May 29    204%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Mon, May 30    230%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  74F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, May 31    259%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  72F No FB infection
Wed, June 1    247%,  0.64'',  11 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 2    162%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 3    169%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sat, June 4    91%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sun, June 5    97%,  0.01'',  3 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Mon, June 6    59%,  0.0'',  4 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Tue, June 7    148%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  71F No FB infection
Wed, June 8    283%,  0.14'',  1 hrs.,  77F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 9    348%,  0.73'',  18 hrs.,  74F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 10    309%,  0.11'',  11 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 11    110%,  1.71'',  22 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sun, June 12    74%,  0.07'',  24 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Mon, June 13    58%,  0.12'',  13 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Tue, June 14    39%,  0.04'',  13 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Wed, June 15    27%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Thu, June 16    112%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F No FB infection
Fri, June 17    128%,  0.63'',  16 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 18    172%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK
Sun, June 19    134%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Mon, June 20    174%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Tue, June 21    176%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F No FB infection
Wed, June 22    157%,  1.16'',  21 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 23    103%,  0.41'',  24 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 24    103%,  0.10'',  24 hrs.,  61F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 25    44%,  0.29'',  20 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Sun, June 26    69%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  69F No FB infection
Mon, June 27    154%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  72F No FB infection
Tue, June 28    227%,  0.07'',  6 hrs.,  72F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 29    271%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  73F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 30    249%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  70F No FB infection
Fri, July 1    221%,  0.02'',  4 hrs.,  68F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 2    197%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, July 3    207%,  0.07'',  15 hrs.,  71F SEVERE INFECTION RISK