Fireblight infection conditions - Cougarblight model

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Hollis NH
Weather data for Hollis NH.  Forecast values begin September 12, 2012
     This table shows estimates of RELATIVE daily fireblight blossom infection risk based on weather conditions.  Rating criteria are from the Cougarblight 2010 model developed in Washington and Oregon by Dr. Timothy J. Smith.     
      ABSOLUTE risk depends on the amount of fire blight bacteria in the area, the number of open flowers, and cultivar and rootstock susceptibility.  Relative infection risk may be overstated for first few days of bloom because fire blight bacteria may not have been distributed to open flowers.   
      Gray shading indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms, and are therefore no longer susceptible to blossom infection.  These dates included for later blooming cultivars and for late-blooming young trees.  Absolute risk is much lower on these dates than during full bloom, but apple trees with open blossoms on these dates are susceptible to the risk rating shown.  
      Fireblight infection can occur without rain if there is "heavy" dew.  But heavy dew is not defined in weather reports.  As a rough guess, if there is no rain on a day, but leaves are expected to be wet for at least 3 hours, then infection risk is reported with "if dew" attached.  Infection potential may be overstated on days when the "if dew" tag is attached.
     Fire blight risk estimate varies by block history:
   I  = No active fire blight within 1 mile of the orchard this year or last year.  Requires 500 – 800 heat units for HIGH rating, 801 – 1000 for EXTREME!, and 1001+ for EXCEPTIONAL!
  
II = Fire blight was present within 1 mile of the orchard last year, but not currently active in the area this year.
Requires 200 – 350 heat units for HIGH rating, 351 – 500 for EXTREME!, and 501+ for EXCEPTIONAL!

  
III = Active fire blight cankers within 1 mile of the orchard this year. 
Requires 100 – 200 heat units for HIGH rating, 200 – 300 for EXTREME!, and 301+ for EXCEPTIONAL!
 If blossom infection occurred April 16, then blossom blight would be noticeable by May 18, and shoot blight by May 27.
Range of potential open blossom dates
for McIntosh and similar cultivars
Cougarblight Heat Units,
Inches Rain, & 
Leaf Wet Hours
I - No FB within
one mile last year
or this year
II - FB within one mile last year, but not active within one mile this year III - FB active within one mile of orchard this year.
McIntosh King Bloom
 Mon, April 16 
397 HU,  0.0'',  8 hrs Caution (if dew) EXTREME! (if dew) EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew)
Tue, April 17  581 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Wed, April 18  583 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Thu, April 19  598 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Fri, April 20  288 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sat, April 21  157 HU,  0.06'',  0 hrs Caution Caution HIGH
Sun, April 22  154 HU,  2.11'',  22 hrs Caution Caution HIGH
Mon, April 23  143 HU,  0.36'',  24 hrs Low Caution HIGH
Tue, April 24  58 HU,  0.0'',  6 hrs Low Low Caution
Wed, April 25  7 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Thu, April 26  10 HU,  0.23'',  6 hrs Low Low Caution
Fri, April 27  7 HU,  0.0'',  9 hrs Low Low Caution
Sat, April 28  7 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sun, April 29  6 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Mon, April 30  6 HU,  0.24'',  0 hrs Low Low Caution
Tue, May 1  6 HU,  0.53'',  21 hrs Low Low Caution
Wed, May 2  5 HU,  0.13'',  15 hrs Low Low Caution
Thu, May 3  4 HU,  0.11'',  22 hrs Low Low Caution
Fri, May 4  4 HU,  0.12'',  24 hrs Low Low Caution
Sat, May 5  10 HU,  0.0'',  14 hrs Low Low Caution
Sun, May 6  16 HU,  0.0'',  5 hrs Low Low Caution
Mon, May 7  33 HU,  0.21'',  0 hrs Low Low Caution
Tue, May 8  33 HU,  0.40'',  22 hrs Low Low Caution
Wed, May 9  38 HU,  0.79'',  24 hrs Low Low Caution
Thu, May 10  37 HU,  0.04'',  14 hrs Low Low Caution
Fri, May 11  26 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sat, May 12  148 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sun, May 13  337 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Mon, May 14  348 HU,  0.51'',  16 hrs Caution HIGH EXCEPTIONAL!
Tue, May 15  368 HU,  0.43'',  20 hrs Caution EXTREME! EXCEPTIONAL!
Wed, May 16  279 HU,  0.33'',  22 hrs Caution HIGH EXTREME!
Thu, May 17  93 HU,  0.0'',  8 hrs Low Low Caution
Fri, May 18  104 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sat, May 19  209 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sun, May 20  395 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Mon, May 21  408 HU,  0.21'',  5 hrs Caution EXTREME! EXCEPTIONAL!
Tue, May 22  400 HU,  0.38'',  24 hrs Caution EXTREME! EXCEPTIONAL!
Wed, May 23  365 HU,  0.02'',  17 hrs Caution EXTREME! EXCEPTIONAL!
Thu, May 24  213 HU,  0.0'',  12 hrs Caution (if dew) HIGH (if dew) EXTREME! (if dew)
Fri, May 25  241 HU,  0.0'',  14 hrs Caution (if dew) HIGH (if dew) EXTREME! (if dew)
Sat, May 26  566 HU,  0.0'',  11 hrs HIGH (if dew) EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew)
Sun, May 27  630 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Mon, May 28  684 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Tue, May 29  690 HU,  0.32'',  13 hrs HIGH EXCEPTIONAL! EXCEPTIONAL!
Wed, May 30  439 HU,  0.01'',  17 hrs Caution EXTREME! EXCEPTIONAL!
Thu, May 31  450 HU,  0.0'',  6 hrs Caution (if dew) EXTREME! (if dew) EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew)
Fri, June 1  351 HU,  0.33'',  0 hrs Caution HIGH EXCEPTIONAL!
Sat, June 2  299 HU,  1.52'',  20 hrs Caution HIGH EXTREME!
Sun, June 3  214 HU,  0.14'',  13 hrs Caution HIGH EXTREME!
Mon, June 4  43 HU,  0.38'',  24 hrs Low Low Caution
Tue, June 5  21 HU,  0.16'',  16 hrs Low Low Caution
Wed, June 6  20 HU,  0.27'',  23 hrs Low Low Caution
Thu, June 7  26 HU,  0.30'',  24 hrs Low Low Caution
Fri, June 8  101 HU,  0.08'',  21 hrs Low Caution HIGH
Sat, June 9  206 HU,  0.0'',  9 hrs Caution (if dew) HIGH (if dew) EXTREME! (if dew)
Sun, June 10  384 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Mon, June 11  440 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Tue, June 12  430 HU,  0.52'',  3 hrs Caution EXTREME! EXCEPTIONAL!
Wed, June 13  350 HU,  0.30'',  24 hrs Caution HIGH EXCEPTIONAL!
Thu, June 14  224 HU,  0.0'',  10 hrs Caution (if dew) HIGH (if dew) EXTREME! (if dew)
Fri, June 15  217 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sat, June 16  171 HU,  0.0'',  0 hrs Low Low Low
Sun, June 17  169 HU,  0.0'',  2 hrs Low Low Low