Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Hancock NH
Weather data for Hancock NH.  Forecast values begin July 31, 2011
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Wednesday, June 08
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Monday, June 20
 If blossom infection occurred May 26, then blossom blight would be noticeable by June 1, and shoot blight by June 10.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray box indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours, &
Avg. Temperature
     EIP = Epiphytic inocolum potential threshold.
     In absence of rain, 2 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+
Any rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
Mac King Bloom
 Sat, May 14 
  0%,  0.28'',  10 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sun, May 15    0%,  1.27'',  24 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Mon, May 16    0%,  0.39'',  24 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Tue, May 17    0%,  0.51'',  24 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Wed, May 18    0%,  0.49'',  24 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Thu, May 19    0%,  0.14'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Fri, May 20    1%,  0.02'',  20 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Sat, May 21    11%,  0.23'',  23 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Sun, May 22    7%,  0.12'',  14 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Mon, May 23    5%,  0.20'',  22 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Tue, May 24    47%,  0.27'',  19 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Wed, May 25    87%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Thu, May 26    167%,  0.0'',  3 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Fri, May 27    235%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  74F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sat, May 28    235%,  0.05'',  18 hrs.,  68F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sun, May 29    258%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  74F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Mon, May 30    271%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  75F No FB infection
Tue, May 31    322%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  72F No FB infection
Wed, June 1    313%,  0.36'',  10 hrs.,  73F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 2    190%,  0.02'',  5 hrs.,  61F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 3    194%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sat, June 4    108%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sun, June 5    123%,  0.02'',  4 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Mon, June 6    88%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Tue, June 7    182%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  70F No FB infection
Wed, June 8    299%,  0.54'',  4 hrs.,  76F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 9    331%,  0.65'',  22 hrs.,  73F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 10    288%,  0.16'',  11 hrs.,  69F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 11    193%,  0.97'',  22 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sun, June 12    98%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Mon, June 13    66%,  0.26'',  15 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Tue, June 14    37%,  0.11'',  24 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Wed, June 15    39%,  0.29'',  18 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Thu, June 16    129%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 17    149%,  0.25'',  13 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 18    173%,  0.06'',  18 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK
Sun, June 19    208%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  65F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Mon, June 20    174%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Tue, June 21    233%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F No FB infection
Wed, June 22    181%,  2.05'',  14 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 23    98%,  0.41'',  24 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Fri, June 24    60%,  0.35'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sat, June 25    16%,  0.23'',  24 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Sun, June 26    42%,  0.01'',  15 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Mon, June 27    130%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, June 28    208%,  0.50'',  7 hrs.,  71F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Wed, June 29    234%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 30    202%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  68F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 1    170%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Sat, July 2    187%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, July 3    188%,  0.05'',  13 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 4    252%,  0.19'',  17 hrs.,  75F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Tue, July 5    286%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  74F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Wed, July 6    343%,  0.36'',  7 hrs.,  74F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, July 7    309%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  72F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 8    243%,  0.21'',  8 hrs.,  68F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 9    207%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  71F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sun, July 10    219%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 11    318%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  77F No FB infection
Tue, July 12    422%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  80F No FB infection
Wed, July 13    418%,  0.47'',  7 hrs.,  72F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, July 14    317%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  67F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 15    212%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F SEVERE INFECTION RISK