Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Sanford ME
Weather data for Sanford ME.  Forecast values begin September 20, 2011
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Friday, June 17
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Tuesday, June 28
 If blossom infection occurred May 26, then blossom blight would be noticeable by June 6, and shoot blight by June 17.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray box indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours, &
Avg. Temperature
     EIP = Epiphytic inocolum potential threshold.
     In absence of rain, 2 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+
Any rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
Mac King Bloom
 Mon, May 16 
  0%,  0.25'',  24 hrs.,  48F No FB infection
Tue, May 17    0%,  0.61'',  24 hrs.,  48F No FB infection
Wed, May 18    0%,  0.65'',  24 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Thu, May 19    0%,  0.43'',  24 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Fri, May 20    0%,  0.0'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sat, May 21    4%,  0.39'',  23 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sun, May 22    2%,  0.13'',  17 hrs.,  50F No FB infection
Mon, May 23    2%,  0.36'',  23 hrs.,  51F No FB infection
Tue, May 24    44%,  0.31'',  19 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Wed, May 25    71%,  0.04'',  10 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Thu, May 26    114%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Fri, May 27    189%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sat, May 28    148%,  0.0'',  15 hrs.,  62F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, May 29    165%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Mon, May 30    202%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  74F No FB infection
Tue, May 31    256%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Wed, June 1    247%,  0.07'',  4 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 2    252%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Fri, June 3    139%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sat, June 4    84%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sun, June 5    89%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Mon, June 6    56%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Tue, June 7    115%,  0.0'',  2 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Wed, June 8    218%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  72F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Thu, June 9    280%,  0.51'',  10 hrs.,  74F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 10    256%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  68F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 11    171%,  0.86'',  16 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Sun, June 12    99%,  0.07'',  24 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Mon, June 13    66%,  0.01'',  15 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Tue, June 14    27%,  0.03'',  19 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Wed, June 15    32%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Thu, June 16    126%,  0.0'',  2 hrs.,  70F No FB infection
Fri, June 17    156%,  0.21'',  10 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK
Sat, June 18    176%,  0.38'',  19 hrs.,  68F INFECTION RISK
Sun, June 19    212%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  65F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Mon, June 20    168%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Tue, June 21    204%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Wed, June 22    180%,  0.88'',  10 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 23    96%,  0.50'',  24 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Fri, June 24    63%,  0.79'',  24 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sat, June 25    42%,  0.32'',  24 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sun, June 26    59%,  0.0'',  14 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Mon, June 27    109%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Tue, June 28    175%,  0.13'',  7 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Wed, June 29    206%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  70F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 30    171%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 1    151%,  0.06'',  10 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 2    150%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, July 3    151%,  0.03'',  14 hrs.,  68F INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 4    201%,  0.14'',  21 hrs.,  73F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Tue, July 5    255%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  74F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Wed, July 6    323%,  0.23'',  7 hrs.,  74F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, July 7    306%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  71F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 8    226%,  0.19'',  2 hrs.,  66F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Sat, July 9    185%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  71F INFECTION RISK
Sun, July 10    193%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  70F INFECTION RISK
Mon, July 11    307%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  77F No FB infection
Tue, July 12    419%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  80F No FB infection
Wed, July 13    426%,  0.69'',  10 hrs.,  73F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Thu, July 14    314%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  66F SEVERE INFECTION RISK
Fri, July 15    201%,  0.0'',  2 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Sat, July 16    215%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  72F No FB infection
Sun, July 17    332%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  77F No FB infection