| Background Information for this page | |||||
| Return to radar list for Monmouth ME | |||||
| Weather data for Monmouth ME. Forecast values begin September 20, 2011 | |||||
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This table shows estimates of RELATIVE daily fireblight blossom
infection risk based on weather conditions.
Rating criteria are from the Cougarblight 2010 model developed in
Washington and Oregon by Dr. Timothy J. Smith. ABSOLUTE risk depends on the amount of fire blight bacteria in the area, the number of open flowers, and cultivar and rootstock susceptibility. Relative infection risk may be overstated for first few days of bloom because fire blight bacteria may not have been distributed to open flowers. Gray shading indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms, and are therefore no longer susceptible to blossom infection. These dates included for later blooming cultivars and for late-blooming young trees. Absolute risk is much lower on these dates than during full bloom, but apple trees with open blossoms on these dates are susceptible to the risk rating shown. Fireblight infection can occur without rain if there is "heavy" dew. But heavy dew is not defined in weather reports. As a rough guess, if there is no rain on a day, but leaves are expected to be wet for at least 3 hours, then infection risk is reported with "if dew" attached. Infection potential may be overstated on days when the "if dew" tag is attached. |
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| Fire blight risk categories vary by block history: | |||||
| I = No active fire blight within 1 mile of
the orchard this year or last year.
Requires 500 – 800 heat units for HIGH rating, 801 – 1000 for EXTREME!, and
1001+ for EXCEPTIONAL! II = Fire blight was present within 1 mile of the orchard last year, but not currently active in the area this year. Requires 200 – 350 heat units for HIGH rating, 351 – 500 for EXTREME!, and 501+ for EXCEPTIONAL! III = Active fire blight cankers within 1 mile of the orchard this year. Requires 100 – 200 heat units for HIGH rating, 200 – 300 for EXTREME!, and 301+ for EXCEPTIONAL! |
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| If blossom infection occurred May 27, then blossom blight would be noticeable by June 9, and shoot blight by June 27. | |||||
| Range of potential open blossom dates for McIntosh and similar cultivars |
Cougarblight Heat Units, Inches Rain, & Leaf Wet Hours |
I - No
FB within one mile last year or this year |
II - FB within one mile last year, but not active within one mile this year | III - FB active within one mile of orchard this year. | |
| Mac King Bloom Sat, May 21 |
7 HU, 0.77'', 24 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Sun, May 22 | 8 HU, 0.08'', 13 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Mon, May 23 | 9 HU, 0.30'', 22 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Tue, May 24 | 45 HU, 0.0'', 16 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Wed, May 25 | 72 HU, 0.0'', 7 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Thu, May 26 | 91 HU, 0.18'', 11 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Fri, May 27 | 210 HU, 0.0'', 14 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | |
| Sat, May 28 | 183 HU, 0.0'', 24 hrs | Caution (if dew) | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | |
| Sun, May 29 | 234 HU, 0.32'', 14 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Mon, May 30 | 470 HU, 0.0'', 9 hrs | Caution (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Tue, May 31 | 422 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Wed, June 1 | 482 HU, 0.44'', 15 hrs | Caution | EXTREME! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Thu, June 2 | 404 HU, 0.0'', 5 hrs | Caution (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Fri, June 3 | 153 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Sat, June 4 | 87 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Sun, June 5 | 30 HU, 0.0'', 6 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Mon, June 6 | 84 HU, 0.0'', 4 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Tue, June 7 | 128 HU, 0.0'', 8 hrs | Low | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | |
| Wed, June 8 | 314 HU, 0.0'', 10 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Thu, June 9 | 575 HU, 1.23'', 8 hrs | HIGH | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Fri, June 10 | 561 HU, 0.0'', 10 hrs | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Sat, June 11 | 516 HU, 0.38'', 10 hrs | HIGH | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Sun, June 12 | 325 HU, 0.35'', 24 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Mon, June 13 | 57 HU, 0.02'', 18 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Tue, June 14 | 15 HU, 0.15'', 20 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Wed, June 15 | 58 HU, 0.0'', 9 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Thu, June 16 | 219 HU, 0.0'', 4 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | |
| Fri, June 17 | 288 HU, 0.12'', 16 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Sat, June 18 | 326 HU, 0.42'', 21 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Sun, June 19 | 314 HU, 0.0'', 8 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Mon, June 20 | 226 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Tue, June 21 | 301 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Wed, June 22 | 310 HU, 0.29'', 4 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Thu, June 23 | 283 HU, 0.46'', 24 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Fri, June 24 | 211 HU, 0.95'', 24 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Sat, June 25 | 69 HU, 0.33'', 24 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Sun, June 26 | 44 HU, 0.09'', 22 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Mon, June 27 | 223 HU, 0.0'', 10 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | |
| Tue, June 28 | 323 HU, 0.0'', 8 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Wed, June 29 | 356 HU, 0.04'', 19 hrs | Caution | EXTREME! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Thu, June 30 | 367 HU, 0.0'', 9 hrs | Caution (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Fri, July 1 | 235 HU, 0.13'', 16 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Sat, July 2 | 234 HU, 0.0'', 10 hrs | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | EXTREME! (if dew) | |
| Sun, July 3 | 228 HU, 0.60'', 23 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Mon, July 4 | 349 HU, 0.01'', 15 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Tue, July 5 | 655 HU, 0.0'', 10 hrs | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Wed, July 6 | 854 HU, 0.55'', 13 hrs | EXTREME! | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Thu, July 7 | 990 HU, 0.0'', 11 hrs | EXTREME! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Fri, July 8 | 888 HU, 0.25'', 2 hrs | EXTREME! | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Sat, July 9 | 634 HU, 0.0'', 11 hrs | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Sun, July 10 | 559 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Mon, July 11 | 844 HU, 0.53'', 0 hrs | EXTREME! | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Tue, July 12 | 1206 HU, 0.0'', 12 hrs | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Wed, July 13 | 1238 HU, 0.33'', 10 hrs | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | EXCEPTIONAL! | |
| Thu, July 14 | 1067 HU, 0.0'', 8 hrs | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Fri, July 15 | 786 HU, 0.0'', 7 hrs | HIGH (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Sat, July 16 | 722 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Sun, July 17 | 1143 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Mon, July 18 | 1346 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Tue, July 19 | 1514 HU, 0.0'', 9 hrs | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | EXCEPTIONAL! (if dew) | |
| Wed, July 20 | 1515 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Thu, July 21 | 1781 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Fri, July 22 | 2223 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |